The analysis of your playscript can help challenge your assumptions about what the industry looks like and where profits are or will be made, helping you move beyond looking at current financial results to seeing the logic and the causes of the drama you're engaged in.
Economists attempt to make the fudge factor as grounded in reality as possible, but instrumental variable analysis inevitably requires the analyst to give short shrift to the hard data and make assumptions about the differences between two populations, and how external factors (like insurance status) affect them.