JPMorgan Chase's index tracking 22 emerging market currencies has returned 7.9% a year over the past decade, with a tiny annualized volatility of 6.6%.

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Plug in the 21% annualized volatility that stocks have exhibited since 1926 and an assumption that prices drift neither up nor down over time.

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At the same time implied (annualized) volatility, reflecting the oil market's expectations about price fluctuations, is running around 45%, 15 points above normal levels.

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However, the compounded annualized return (what you actually earned once volatility was factored in) was about 7.8%.

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One common yardstick of volatility is standard deviation, which uses annualized monthly returns over time as a baseline.

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Conflict countries experienced annualized returns that were 2.1% lower and volatility that was 1.2% higher than the average frontier market country over a ten year period.

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