Thus, through increased competition for those above normal profits the above normal profits fall back to the normal level.
The five-day fear-of-the-cliff selloff dropped slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement support but then SPY closed the year back above the 20-day EMA. Though the monthly and weekly OBV were positive, the daily OBV did not break out of its trending range, line b, until the middle of January.
The daily OBV has moved well above the highs going back to April, and has overcome the long-term downtrend (line g).
He also cited a move in the dollar index back above the 80 level.
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By the middle of February, the SPY was back above the quarterly pivot.
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The volume has picked up over the past few days, although the OBV needs to move back above the resistance (line d) to complete a bottom formation.
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The 8-day soon crossed back above the 100-day average again on Feb. 11, so Tintle reversed and went long.
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The following week, AAPL closed back above the quarterly pivot level, suggesting that the intermediate-term uptrend was still intact.
The Dow then rallied back up to its 21-day m.a. last week, where the question was whether it would break back above the m.a.
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In this case, the DAX was strong the first two days after the lows, and six days later, it closed back above the quarterly pivot at 7851.
If we see the dollar reverse and start to rally strongly again, back above the 78.50-odd level, then I think you see a pullback in the stock market.
The dollar index is back above 76 for the first time since May.
That includes bond yields as noted above, and mortgage rates, the latter now back above 5% and at their highest level since last May.
Volume has dropped off over the past few days, but still the OBV is back above its WMA but below the downtrend, line d.
The OBV was already back above its WMA as the overall market was bottoming (line 1).
As the monthly OBV moved back above its WMA at the end of November, the weekly OBV was below its WMA but above its uptrend, line h.
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The OBV made lower lows in November, but IWM did not, and by the second week of January, the OBV was back above its WMA. This coincided with the rally into the late March highs.
Two weeks after the lows, the OBV moved back above its WMA and then soon moved above the previous highs (line g) at the end of June.
The RS line needs to move back above its WMA and the resistance (line d) to confirm that it has bottomed.
The 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day back in September and arcs upward.
This weakness was confirmed when the OBV failed to move back above its flattening WMA on the October rally.
Meantime, Spanish bonds are trading back above the critical 6% level as a major Spanish bank is in trouble.
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Lesh also cited a U.S. dollar index back above the 80 level.
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The Blues moved back above Manchester United and are a point clear at the top of the table with two games to play.
Revisions could take that number back above the closely-watched 400, 000 level.
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Prices Wednesday did push back above the key 200-day moving average.
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