Then we realized that if a team is winning 20-0 in the second quarter a win probabilitymodel is going to say they have a 99.9% likelihood of winning and everyone is going to stop watching.
Ongoing relationships with community banks have also helped Sageworks develop a statistically based model predicting the probability that, within a year, a business will default on a loan.
Retailers also continue to experience a higher average probability of default, based on the Sageworks probability of default model, a predictive statistical model for the credit analysis of small or privately held companies.
In the new study biostatistician Ira Longini at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle devised a computer model to calculate the probability that such an outbreak pattern could occur without human transmission.
Price drops or runups that the coin-tossing model sees as impossible--changes with aprobability of a millionth of a millionth of a millionth of a millionth--occur frequently.
Dr Farley believes that if fed data on the number of members of a network who have been apprehended, an ordered-set model can give the authorities an estimate of the probability that the network has been disrupted.