However, from where I sit, it appears that there is a downtrend taking shape.
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The real issue is: what level of risk are investors taking by buying into a downtrend?
The momentum stayed positive until the end of June 2008, line 2, when a downtrend was confirmed.
The weekly RS line is now in a downtrend, but it did confirm the most recent high.
The weekly OBV is still in a downtrend, but has recently moved above its weighted moving average.
The greenback bulls are fading and a downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart.
Therefore underlying inflationary pressures will resume a downtrend over the next 8 months.
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Some of these methods commonly lag the market, underestimating value during uptrends, and overvaluing assets in a downtrend.
In a downtrend, both the OBV and price should be making a series of lower highs and lower lows.
The crude oil bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage as a downtrend on the daily chart has been re-established.
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The OBV surged in 2005 but then peaked in 2006 and formed a downtrend (line b) over the next three years.
Since the early-September highs, there have been four wide swings, and gold prices are currently in a downtrend from the late-February highs.
The daily RS analysis (not shown) is clearly in a downtrend, and it would take some time before it can turn around.
The bears have the near-term technical advantage in gold and are now working on re-establishing a downtrend line on the daily bar chart.
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Crude oil futures prices are trading firmer Tuesday morning, but crude prices are still trading below a downtrend line on the daily bar chart.
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So, while the stock market clearly remains in a downtrend, our take on the tea leaves is we managed to move away from panic-mode on Tuesday.
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TMT telecom, media, and technology is another sector Guy is wary of, even though prices have been in a downtrend for nearly a year and have corrected sharply lately.
Although we estimate that the number of DVDs being shipped per subscriber is on a downtrend, the rapid expansion in subscriber base is driving overall DVD shipment growth.
Core inflation--a measure closely watched by the Reserve Bank of India--eased to its lowest in about three years, reassuring observers that price pressures are indeed in a downtrend.
The volume action on the recent rally has not been impressive, as the on-balance volume (OBV) is still in a downtrend and below strong resistance (line d).
Karl Setzer, commodity trading adviser at MaxYield Cooperative in Iowa, said the gain the dollar had a significant impact on the grain markets, which were already in a downtrend.
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One of the most simplistic ways to use the OBV is to see if it makes a new high with each price high in an uptrend, or makes a new low with prices in a downtrend.
But core inflation--a measure closely watched by the Reserve Bank of India--eased to its lowest in about three years, reassuring observers that price pressures are in a downtrend, and adding to impetus for a rate cut.
The gold market has been declining in an overall orderly fashion in recent months, with a clear series of lower daily highs and lower daily lows evident on the daily chart that is the traditional definition of a downtrend.
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Stephen Walters, chief economist at JP Morgan, said there was some "static" in the data with volatility in high density housing data in New South Wales helping to skew the result, but added it was still clear that a downtrend is underway in housing.
Over the past few months, India's consumer inflation has bucked a downtrend in wholesale inflation, constraining the central bank from lowering interest rates aggressively despite facing mounting pressure to make corporate borrowings cheaper and help stimulate an economy growing at its weakest pace in a decade.
The stock was trading above a rising 50 day moving average (red line) and consolidating nicely underneath a descending downtrend from a few months back.
The weekly chart shows that NUE broke through a major downtrend, line a, in late December.
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