当然,事后解释市场走势永远都比预测走势容易。
Of course, it's always easier to explain the market's moves than it is to predict them.
只要修正这一偏差,三位经济学家显示,改进的巨无霸指数就可以很好地在年及年以上时间单位上预测汇率走势。
Once that is done, the three economists show that a reconstituted index is good at predicting real exchange rates over horizons of a year or more.
因此,原始指数无法很好地预测汇率走势:被低估的货币通常会持续低估,而被高估的货币则持续高估。
As a result, the raw index did a poor job of predicting exchange rates: undervalued currencies remain too cheap and overvalued currencies remain too pricey.
But they are expecting that the Fed is eventually-- and they were right of course in this case-- the Fed is eventually going to raise rates.
但他们预计联储局最终会,人们这次正确预测了走势,联储局最终会调高利率
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