测定季节变动对时间序列的影响，一般按同期平均法（原资料平均法）和趋势剔除法计算季节比率。
Measuring the seasonal variation in a time series, we generally use two methods to calculate seasonal indexes—average of original data, trend adjustment for average.
结论移动平均比率法综合考虑长期、季节、周期及随机趋势，预测效果较好。
Conclusions Moving seasonal mean ratio method could consider secular, seasonal, cyclic and random tendencies of time-series data together and could serve as a useful tool for prediction.
方法 用季节预测法中的移动平均比率法计算趋势值与调整月指数 ，最后应用模型。
Methods The trend values were calculated and the monthly indexes were adjusted with moving average method of season prediction method, and then the model was applied.
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