结论移动平均比率法综合考虑长期、季节、周期及随机趋势，预测效果较好。
Conclusions Moving seasonal mean ratio method could consider secular, seasonal, cyclic and random tendencies of time-series data together and could serve as a useful tool for prediction.
这里主要讲述季节变动的移动平均比率法，其它成分调用统计程序包进行计算。
Here we mainly talk about moving average proportion method of season change, other compositions call statistic program packages.
结论：移动平均比率法可以为我们提供较准确的预测数据，为医院管理提供决策依据。
Conclusion: Moving average rate method can provide precise data for us and it can be used for reference for hospitals management.
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