在第一份报告中，作者从常识位置出发，这些的高增长率不可能持续很久，尝试固定那些迫使将来出口增长的因素。

In the first paper, the authors start from the common-sense position that those high growth rates can't continue forever, and try to nail down what factors would constrain future export growth.

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在预测范围（3年）以后，增长率为固定值，所以我们可以对固定增长公式进行调整以计算预测时间段以外的所有自由现金流量价值，并折现到预测时间段以内。

Growth is constant after the horizon (3 years), so we can modify the constant growth formula to find the value of all free cash flows beyond the horizon, discounted back to the horizon.

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