首先，也是最重要的，就是减少不确定因素，排除“尾部风险”(tail risk)，感知尾部风险。

First and foremost, reduce uncertainty. Do so by removing tail risks, and the perception of tail risks.

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这种不确定性的削减还减少了估计中的变化，因为在这些因素和生成可靠估值的能力之间存在直接的关联。

This reduction in uncertainty also reduces the variance in estimations, since there is a direct correlation between these factors and the ability to produce sound estimates.

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更多的过程一般减少创造力，因此您应该在项目的开始时(当不确定性是每天的因素时)用较少的过程。

More process typically reduces creativity, so you should use less process at the beginning of a project, when uncertainty is an everyday factor.

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