The Patriots actually have changed more than the Giants since New York's 17-14 upset in Super Bowl XLII.

WSJ: Giants-Patriots Super Bowl Shows Consistency in an Era of Change

But after a 17-14 loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII, the Pats look like just another team that couldn't win the big one.

FORBES: Magazine Article

But there were some surprises: David Tyree's helmet catch in Super Bowl XLII against the Patriots only improved the Giants' chance of winning by 20%, which didn't crack the top 10.

WSJ: NFL: The Plays That Decided the Playoffs