台湾现在使用的方法为人口变动要素合成法 (The Cohort Component Method),可算是情境推估(Scenario Forecast)的一种,其 起源可追溯至1920 年代(Whelpton, 1928),參酌专家意見之后,使用高、中、低 三种推计來描述其变动范围。
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The gloomy mood among bosses in Davos makes the worst-case scenario outlined in a new forecast from the International Labour Organisation (ILO) seem the most plausible of its possible outcomes.
企业老板们在达沃斯的悲观情绪使在国际国际劳工组织(ilo)新的预测中的最坏情况似乎成了最合理最可能的结果。
That's often because entrepreneurs who are wet behind the ears don't realize that they should calculate their borrowing needs based on their worst-case scenario instead of their best-case forecast.
这种情况常常是因为初出茅庐的创业者没有意识到他们应该根据最坏的而不是最好的预测来计算他们所要借出多少钱。
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