These include the election of new leaders. The year will start with the departure from office of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, after an eight-year stint as Brazil's president in which he gradually became the dominant leader in Latin America. Dilma Rousseff, his disciple and successor, will continue Brazil's generally pragmatic economic policies while stepping up efforts to use the state to create industrial champions. She lacks Lula's vast political experience, so much attention will focus on how she handles allies in Congress. But the biggest risk for Brazil is any setback that might occur in the technically complex efforts to extract oil from deep-sea fields.

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