As Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute points out, this line of argument may also prove effective after the war, if the diplomatic wounds do not rapidly heal.

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He is not going to go off-message without a lot of discussion inside the campaign on how they wanted to handle it, " said Norm Ornstein, a veteran political analyst and author of "It's Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided with the New Politics of Extremism.

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So while it is possible that, like Mr Reagan in 1980, Mr Kerry will finally settle on the man he beat in the primaries, he is first likely, argues Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute, to look for someone who combines the virtues of both safety first and a jolt to the ticket.

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