近年来麻疹疫苗初种前小婴儿麻疹发病率呈上升趋势，以夏季度多见；
The attack rate of measles in little infants before primary vaccination increased in recent years, which reaches the top in summer and increases with the increasing of the month age.
结论：ARIMA模型能很好的模拟深圳市麻疹发病率的变动趋势，预测效果可靠。
Conclusion: ARIMA model can be used to exactly fit the changes of the incidence of measles and predict the future measles incidence in future.
结论洛阳市2003年麻疹发病率高的主要原因与儿童基础免疫接种率低、免疫失败有关。
Conclusion the main reasons of the high measles incidence in 2003 in Luoyang were the low inoculation rate and failure immunization.
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