一份最近的评估报告预计高产债的违约率，从2007年的0.9%上升到今年4.8%，翻了4倍。若衰退持续，上述情况还算是乐观估计。

One recent estimate expects default rates on high-yield debt to quintuple from 0.9% in 2007 to 4.8% this year. If the downturn endures, even that could prove optimistic.

youdao

现金流分析则包括环境分析、违约率和回收率预测、信用提升水平估计和压力测试。

The cash flow analysis mainly includes environments observation, EDF, recovery rates forecast, the estimation of credit enhancement and stress tests.

youdao