...非平稳的,时序变量的非平稳性将改变OLS估计值的渐进分布结果,可能产生伪(spurious)回归问题,由此而引发协整(Cointegrated)的检验和估计问题,而且即使在协整成立的前提下,使用有限样本对协整向量进行OLS估计仍有实质性偏差。
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The result shows clearly that the house price index and rent index have different orders of integration,and are not cointegrated,which indicates that there is a bubble in the sample periods.
检验结果表明,房屋销售价格指数和租赁价格指数序列的单整阶数不相等,并且二者不存在协整关系,因此在样本期间内我国房地产价格存在泡沫。
参考来源 - 中国房地产市场价格泡沫的检验与成因机理研究·2,447,543篇论文数据,部分数据来源于NoteExpress
By using recursive estimation in cointegrated VAR model, we analyze the relationship between real estate financial structure and growth of real estate economy in China.
本文运用VAR模型协整关系的递归估计方法,对我国房地产金融结构和房地产经济增长的关联性进行了分析。
Results of the study reveal that the nominal and real exchange rates bear a long run relationship (cointegrated), while the error correction results confirm short-run deviations in the relationship.
研究结果表明,名义汇率和实际汇率都承受长远的关系(协整关系),而纠错的结果证实短期存在偏差关系。
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