This paper discusses the risk research of pyrotechnics for the buyer and seller with the Bayes method. Under the historical data and prior distribution, the formulation of risk is obtained.
应用贝叶斯方法研究了火工品买卖方风险问题，在先验分布和历史数据下，给出了买卖方风险的计算公式。
The posterior probability is computed from the prior and the likelihood function via Bayes' theorem.
先验概率与后验概率有不可分割的联系，后验概率的计算要以先验概率为基础。
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