有一点很明显，危机中的美国特设政策反应部署迄今还没有起到作用以解决问题或减少市场的不确定性。
The one thing that seems to be clear from the crisis in the us is that the AD hoc policy responses deployed thus far have not worked to resolve the problems or decrease market uncertainty.
因此问题不是我们不确定如何进行估算，而是我们要么需要在估算中加入荒谬的偶然事件，要么承认我们并不是百分百的有信心。
So the issue is not really that we are unsure how to estimate, it is that we need to either add ridiculous contingency to our estimates or admit that we are less than 100% confident in them.
不确定情境中的决策问题广受经济学家和心理学家关注，但他们对人的决策行为有不同的解释。
Decision-making under uncertainty is being widely concerned among economists and psychologists, yet they have different theories to explain people's decision-making behavior.
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