根据折现现金流估值,瑞信预测荣南的加权平均资金成本为9.9%,最终增长率(terminal growth)为3%,并把它的目标价定为50分,相等于15倍的下财年底本益比。
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最终实际销售额—GDP减去库存变化—GDP在去年最后三个月内以7.1%的年增长率迅猛增长。
Real final sales—GDP minus inventory changes—surged ahead at a 7.1% annual rate in the last three months of the year.
此外,这只是初步估计,有前车之鉴表明初步估计与事实有时相差甚大。2009年末几乎不能感觉到的0.1%增长率最终被推升至0.5%。
Moreover, this is a preliminary estimate and past revisions have sometimes been quite large; barely perceptible growth of 0.1% in late 2009 was subsequently pushed up to 0.5%.
如果增长率继续下降,希腊将无法实现财政收入目标,甚至会要求更多援助。市场走势表明,投资者预期希腊最终将会债务违约,很大程度上正是因为担忧上述恶性循环。
A further decline in growth could cause Greece to miss revenue targets and even seek more bailouts, which is largely why the market is pricing in the likelihood that Greece will eventually default.
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