本文在传统时间序列分析建模方法的基础上，提出了用AR模型的新的完整而又简单的辨识方法。
On the basis of traditional time series analysis and modeling methods, the thesis puts forward a new complete and simply identification method by using ar model.
分析了传统时间序列分析法建立ARMA模型的不足，提出了一种利用模型阶数判断准则和长自回归法建模的新方法。
The disadvantage of establishing ARMA model with traditional time series analysis is analyzed; a new model building method based on judgment rules and long autoregression is put forward.
电力系统短期负荷预测使用的方法有传统建模方法，诸如时间序列、回归分析等方法。
There are traditional model methods of forecasting short-term load, such as time series, regression analysis, and so on.
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