Mr Rauh calculates that seven states will have exhausted their pension assets by 2020—even if they make a return of 8%, a common assumption that looks wildly optimistic.

Rauh预计，即使按照过于乐观的8%的回报率来算，在2020年之前还是会有七个州会将退休基金资产耗尽；

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Mr Rauh and Mr Novy-Marx estimate that raising the retirement age by a year would trim the cost by 2-4%; a cut of a percentage point in inflation-linking would slash it by 9-11%.

Mr Rauh and Mr Novy-Marx估计，提高一年退休年龄将是开销减少2%-4%，通货膨胀率下降一个百分点将使债务减少9%-11%。

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Professor Rauh estimates that the shortage in pension funding is on average a third higher today.

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Joshua Rauh, a pension expert at the Kellogg School of Management, is skeptical.

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That is why the government-bond yield is the appropriate measure for discounting public liabilities, as Messrs Rauh and Novy-Marx assert.

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