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The idea of risk, that economic risks can be pooled, is an intuitive one that has occurred to people throughout history.
风险理论，即认为经济风险可以分摊，是历史过程中,人们逐渐发现的理论。
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That's what, in principle, we can do and what I think is the most important concept in finance--this concept of risk pooling.
原则上，这就是我们能做的,我认为这也是金融业最重要的概念,即风险汇聚及分摊。
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The problem is that while the principle of risk-sharing is very simple and obvious the practice requires technology.
问题在于,尽管风险分摊原则,听起来浅显易懂,但是实践仍然需要技术支持。
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It's a continuation of the second lecture, where I talked about the principle of dispersal of risk.
作为第二节课内容的延续，当时我讲过关于风险分摊的原则。
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So, the idea that theorists suggest-- and it may be unreachable-- but the perfect financial system would have all of our risks pooled completely.
理论家提出的这一理论-,可能无法达到-,但是一个完美的金融体系,能够将所有的风险完全分摊。
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Anytime there's a risk that hits one person or one country the financial markets would spread it out over everybody and it gets very small.
如果有风险袭击一个人或者一个国家,金融市场就会将风险分摊到所有人身上,风险就变得微乎其微。
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We want to share things, but we want to get more scientific about how we share things and that means-- and we want to be effective.
我们才想要分摊风险，但我们得用更科学的方式,也可说是更有效率的方式-,来分摊风险。
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It really is probability theory and the idea of spreading risk through risk pooling.
就是概率论,以及通过风险汇聚来分摊风险
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In the second lecture, I talked about the pooling of risks and the basic theme of that lecture was that we now have a mathematical theory, probability theory.
第二课，我讲了风险汇聚及分摊,那节课的主题是,一门数学理论，即概率论。
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Well, they would probably agree that we'd do some risk-sharing, right?
也许会达成共识,我们来分摊风险，对吧？
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There's also a problem with risk-sharing at that level.
还有另一个风险分摊程度的问题。
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The best you can do sharing among yourselves is sharing your own risk, the risk of your own community; but your own community goes up and down and you're not sharing widely enough.
你们所能做的仅仅是在成员之间,分摊自己的风险，即你们这个小团体的风险;,但由于共有背景下的正相关性,你们的风险无法摊薄。
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The problem is that if you want to do risk-sharing, you're not, ideally, sharing with someone who's just like you living in Israel, working in a certain agricultural industry-- because there are lots of risks that you've already shared.
如果你真的想要达到风险分摊的效果，理论上说，就不应该只和与你的同伴,比如同住在以色列，一样从事农业的人来分摊-,因为你们承担的许多风险是正相关的。
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So, that means we have to devise ways of sharing with people that we've never met, that we don't care about--I mean, maybe we care about everybody, but we don't have any particular emotional ties to them-- and they're very different people.
那意味着我们必须设计一些方法,使我们与素未谋面的，并不亲近的人们一同分摊风险，也许我们非常博爱，但未必对所有人都会怀有特殊情感-,分摊者应该是与我们非常不同的人。
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It doesn't work so easily to share with those people along the lines that these communities--I think these communes tend to emphasize a social compact, a feeling for each other, a caring for each other, which is a lovely thought but it doesn't achieve risk management on a big scale.
但要实现跟满足这些条件的人分摊风险,绝非易事,这些共同体。。。我指这些公社,倾向于强调一种社会凝聚力，一种人与人的深情和关怀，这个想法听上去很美,但无法实现大规模有成效的风险管理。
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