除非发生逆转，盈余国家的过度供给也必将化为乌有。
Unless this is reversed, excess supply of surplus countries must also collapse.
另一个重要历史教训是，赤字国家表现胜过盈余国家。
Another important lesson was that deficit countries outperformed surplus countries.
大量必须的全球需求扩张不得不来自那些盈余国家。
Much of the necessary expansion in global demand must come from surplus countries.
2008年中国的经常项目盈余占所有盈余国家总和的21%。
The Chinese current-account surplus in 2008 was 21% of the combined total for surplus countries.
对于盈余国家来说，更适合的政策是提高利率和允许本币升值。
Surplus countries would do better to increase interest rates and allow their currencies to rise.
高居一系列优先事项前列的观点，是要求盈余国家做更多事情。
High up on the list of its priorities is the idea of demanding that surplus countries do more.
但如果盈余国家国内需求的增长不够迅速，将导致全球增长复苏更加乏力。
But if domestic demand does not grow fast enough in surplus countries, this will lead to a weaker recovery in global growth.
对于盈余国家来说，这看起来不象是件好事；而对美国来说，这看起来亦不象是件坏事。
This does not seem either like a good thing for surplus countries or a bad thing for the US.
短期而言，外部收支状况不可能很快发生改变，尤其是在盈余国家的内需如此疲弱之际。
In the short run, it is impossible to shift external balances quickly, particularly when domestic demand in the surplus countries is so weak.
接下来他们细细研究了这些事件，以了解今天的盈余国家采取相似措施可能造成的影响。
They then examined those episodes for clues about the possible impact of similar moves by today’s surplus countries.
解决方案显而易见：必须允许赤字国家按照与盈余国家相同的条件，为自己的债务再融资。
The solution is obvious: deficit countries must be allowed to refinance their debt on the same terms as surplus countries.
如果是通过供给收缩，盈余国家就尤其危险了，因为他们依靠赤字国家保持市场开发的意愿。
If it is going to be through contractions in supply, the surplus countries are particularly at risk, since they depend on the willingness of deficit countries to keep markets open.
这就要求盈余国家降低其经常账户上的盈余（或者，某个地方的赤字增加，这几乎是不可能的）。
That requires a reduction in the current account surpluses of surplus countries (or, much less probably, increases in deficits elsewhere).
接下来他们细细研究了这些事件，以了解今天的盈余国家采取相似措施可能造成的影响。
They then examined those episodes for clues about the possible impact of similar moves by today's surplus countries.
当繁荣破灭时，入不敷出的国家可能感到有理由自责，盈余国家则对他们的困境目瞪口呆。
Countries that have lived beyond their means may feel a justifiable remorse as their booms turn to bust. Surplus countries are simply stupefied by their plight.
反对该意见的人认为，欧元区内部存在赤字的国家仍然面临重整秩序的压力，而财政盈余国家如德国则没有任何压力。
One objection is that the pressure remains on deficit countries within the euro area to put their houses in order, whereas none is brought to bear on surplus countries such as Germany.
这已经在一些盈余国家中产生恐慌，包括日本和韩国，他们担心他们的货币过度升值会影响其出口，进而其增长会收到威胁。
That has created anxiety in some surplus countries, including South Korea and Japan, who fear that their currencies are rising so much that their exports -- and thus their growth -- are endangered.
对那些大宗商品出口国家来说，这又是另外一个故事，作为一个整体，考虑到刚性的支出和减少的收入，他们注定要在2009年从盈余国家转为赤字国家。
It is a different story with commodity exporters who, as a whole, are set to shift from surplus to deficit territory in 2009, given robust spending and much lower revenues.
除了日本，亚洲国家积累盈余的主要途径是向美国提供廉价的商品和服务。
Asian countries, other than Japan, accumulated the surpluses largely by supplying cheap goods and services to the us.
为了调节经济使其保持增长，盈余的国家必须扩大他们的支出以填满由美国消费者及房屋制造者造成的空白，但那似乎并不可能。
To adjust upwards, the surplus countries would have to expand their spending to fill the vacuum left by American consumers and housebuilders, but that does not seem likely.
十年前，小额盈余在很多富裕国家是普遍现象（虽然不包括日本），但是今非昔比。
A decade ago small surpluses were common in many rich countries (although not in Japan), but these are long gone.
那些有盈余的国家必须更加积极地鼓励国内私人消费。
Countries with surpluses must encourage private spending at home more vigorously.
当尘埃落定，他说，那些“做了功课的”，增加经常账户盈余及储备的国家能看到钱又回来了。
Once the dust has settled, he says, those countries that have "done their homework", running up current-account surpluses and reserves, will see the money come back.
当尘埃落定，他说，那些“做了功课的”，增加经常账户盈余及储备的国家能看到钱又回来了。
Once the dust has settled, he says, those countries that have "done their homework", running up current-account surpluses and reserves, will see the money come back.
应用推荐