The housing market may already be self-correcting, and we should be wary of any over-correction.
Perhaps, but over-correction is often the outcome in Washington.
FORBES: The Sheep Stop Here: Another Church Committee or Full Review of Privacy Laws Needed?
The DJ Transportation Avg, which frequently leads the rest of the market, has possibly already rolled over into a correction, down 4% over the last four weeks.
That combination is liable to roll the market over into a correction of some degree beginning in January.
FORBES: Take Some Profits, Hold Some Cash, Buy With Both Hands Later On
Teun Draaisma, the chief European equities strategist for Morgan Stanley, predicted earlier this week that there would be 14% correction over the next six months.
Obviously the market does not begin a big rally on the same day each fall, or roll over into a correction on the same day each spring.
The market obviously does not roll over into a correction exactly on May 1 each year, or begin a new favorable season rally on November 1 each year.
Analysts like Yulong Li, research director at Balentine in Atlanta, have been saying that a 20% to 30% year-over-year correction in Chinese real estate along coastal cities like Beijing and Shanghai would not be unheard of.
While there has been a small correction over the last couple of days, considering the level the euro was trading at versus the dollar earlier this week, this recent drop could be of minor consequence if traders see it as a buying opportunity.
Even the largest and strongest stock market of Europe, Germany, which had been making new highs right along with the Dow, has been in a correction over the last few weeks, now down 7%, with short-term support levels broken and looking like more downside ahead.
Then, by the time everyone was coming around to the idea that the last invincible corner of the market was finally rolling over, the correction seemed to end Tuesday, and stocks like Apple and Priceline were back in positive territory amid a surge for the broader market.
The very next month the stock market rolled over into a correction, and a month after that the surprising negative economic reports began to pile in for May and June, and now into July, including dismal monthly employment reports, plunges in home sales, unexpected declines in retail sales, auto sales, manufacturing, and consumer sentiment.
The selling has been heavy over the past few weeks, and I would expect the volume to decrease before the correction is over.
Both need to move above the prior three-week highs to indicate that their correction is over.
Yet, the stock market chooses now as the time to roll over into a potential correction?
FORBES: Position For Stock Market Correction, Hope You're Wrong
The OBV needs to surpass the downtrend at line d to confirm that the correction is over.
The following correction lasted until February 15 (point 3) when it looked as though the correction was over.
The OBV broke its short-term downtrend in early November, line c, suggesting that the correction was over.
In May, the sentiment had become more negative, which suggested the worst of the correction was over.
There is initial resistance at 8, 300, and a daily close above 8, 400 should signal that the correction is over.
FORBES: The Week Ahead: Can Energy Stocks Fuel The Next Market Rally?
Gold has finally decided to back off, and there should be a bit more selling before this correction is over.
Yet already Wall Street is assuring investors that the correction is over, and the lower prices are presenting a buying opportunity.
The OBV has turned up and a move back above its WMA would support the view that the correction is over.
Given that the Dax topped out 12 days ahead of SPY, we may see more choppy-to-downward action before its correction is over.
The short-term technical outlook and increasing volume suggests the correction is over but are there any new opportunities for investors or traders?
Technically, the rare earth stocks look poised to make further new correction lows over the next few weeks, stopping out the recent buyers.
The strong close last week suggests that the correction is over.
The daily relative performance or RS analysis has closed back above its WMA, but a close above the resistance at line b is needed to confirm that the correction is over.
With my indicators on a sell signal for bonds since August 16, I have been warning about bonds being overbought and in danger of rolling over into a serious correction for several months.
FORBES: Who Will Buy All Those Treasury Bonds When The Fed Stops?
The three tests of this support may mean that the worst of the correction is already over.
应用推荐