The Fed has apparently ignored recent jumps in the ISM Mfg Index, ISM Non-Mfg Index (service sector), retail sales, durable goods orders, and the like, which indicated even the point in the recovery may be near where the employment situation improves.
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The merry month of May was anything but, with its reports of deteriorating conditions in April that were much worse than forecasts, as measured by the ISM Mfg Index, the ISM Non-Mfg Index, Factory Activity, and Industrial Production.
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The Chicago PMI will be released on Tuesday, the ISM Mfg Index on Wednesday, and the ISM non-mfg Index (services sector) on Friday.
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The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index came in at 40.6 in December after November's record-low 37.3.
The Institute for Supply Management's Non-Manufacturing Index showed the services index grew faster than expected in September, the ninth-straight monthly gain.
On that point, several economic reports in the past week came in better than expected, including much higher non-farm payrolls and productivity, as well as a rise in the ISM non-manufacturing index.
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The ISM Non-Mfg Index (service sector) plunged from 57.2 in February to 53.3 in March.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is also out on Wednesday, and jobless claims follows on Thursday.
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Also out this week are factory orders on Tuesday and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index on Wednesday.
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The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is on the verge of breaking its downtrend (line b).
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes ISM non-manufacturing index and the global services PMI.
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The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacuring index rose to 42.9, from a revised 40.1 December reading.
On Tuesday, we get the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, followed on Wednesday by the ADP Employment Report and factory orders.
Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management reported its non-manufacturing index fell to 41.6 in February, from 42.9 in January.
Finally, in addition to the jobs report Friday, we also have the factory orders and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.
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Economists like the Non-Maunufacturing Index because it seems to correlate well to the current health of the economy as a whole.
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The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell for the second month in a row, and at 53.1 was below the consensus estimate of 54.
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The ISM Non-Mfg Index, covering the services sector, also declined in March.
The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index also came in better than expected Tuesday.
The report comes a day after the Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index rose to 42.9, from a revised 40.1 December reading.
The other economic news was mixed, as while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index was weaker than expected, the same-store sales data gave retail stocks a big boost on Thursday.
In addition to the jobs data last week the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 56, which suggests that the economy is growing nicely and will continue to do so.
If the stock market survives all of these reports, jobless claims come out Thursday, and the monthly jobs report, Factory Orders, and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index round out the week on Friday.
However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which measures activity in the service sector (accounting for 80% of the jobs in the private sector), fell from 54.3 in July to 51.5 in August, and was ignored.
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However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which measures the service sector (which accounts for 80% of jobs in the U.S.) fell to 51.5 in August from 54.3 in July, worse than forecasts, and the lowest reading since January.
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Although traders appeared to have been dismayed over the jobs numbers on Friday, they seemed to interpret the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (an index that provides a look at the state of the services sector) as a relatively upbeat sign.
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This week it was reported that the ISM Non-Mfg Index, which tracks the service sector of the economy, plunged to 52.8 in April from 57.3 in March (versus the consensus estimate of economists that it would improve to 57.8).
For example, the chart below shows how the food and non-food consumer price index (CPI) have declined on a year-over-year basis over the past several months.
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Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.8%.
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