People use other products instead of satellite radio, said Thomas Hazlett, a former FCC chief economist.
CNN: Proposed satellite radio merger: Boon for consumers or monopoly?
"That's not going to be a huge drug in the near term, " says Hazlett.
Hazlett is worried that this reflects lower sales of Cordarone for ventricular fibrillation and Refacto for hemophilia.
The drug giant will face both victories and losses in court, Hazlett says, and that will make shares volatile.
Seiden and Hazlett agree that if they can get the product out, they can get Claritin users to switch.
Hazlett points to three companies most likely to benefit from the new guidelines: New York-based Pfizer, Whitehouse Station, N.
Hazlett points to the company's success at making a similar switch in Germany.
"It looks like they need to reassess that deal, " says Robert Hazlett , a pharmaceuticals analyst at Robertson Stephens.
"Schering-Plough has one of the best marketing departments in the business, " Hazlett says.
Hazlett notes another promising drug: an anti-cholesterol treatment called ezetimibe that makes any of the vaunted statin drugs more attractive.
Mr. Hazlett is a professor of law and economics at George Mason University, where he directs the Information Economy Project.
Hazlett also points to the NAB's vehement opposition to the merger as evidence that competition to satellite radio does exist.
CNN: Proposed satellite radio merger: Boon for consumers or monopoly?
Many of the people who needed the medications under the previously existing guidelines did not take them, Hazlett points out.
"It's extremely beneficial to have one of the more powerful cholesterol-lowering medicines as part of your drug lineup, " Hazlett says.
Hazlett says that he had expected news of approval--or at least potential approval--to be a near-term boost for Alkermes' stock.
"This is a very, very important drug for them, " says Robert Hazlett , a pharmaceuticals analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey .
Neither Seiden nor Hazlett found comfort in comments by Schering-Plough's Chairman and Chief Executive Richard Kogan at an analyst meeting yesterday.
Robert Hazlett, pharmaceuticals analyst at Robertson Stephens, says he uses a rule of thumb that a drug is worth four times continuing sales.
"Investors need to be concerned about any patents beyond the compound patent, " says Robert Hazlett, an analyst at Robertson Stephens in New York.
"I think this is the quarter where they've finally begun to right the ship, " says Robert Hazlett, a pharmaceuticals analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
"Lilly understands how to build markets in central nervous system drugs, and they know how to establish a presence in the antidepressant space, " says Hazlett.
Hazlett believes that Elan's ongoing Alzheimer's project with Pharmacia (nyse: PHA - news - people ) may have more immediate--but still far-off--potential.
"There's enough noise in the Vioxx data that it makes the actual growth rate a little difficult to ascertain, " says Robertson Stephens analyst Robert Hazlett.
"CASHMERE could weaken arguments against Zetia and Vytorin use, " Hazlett wrote.
"The managed care companies will take care of that, " says Hazlett.
"The scrutiny that was attributed to other companies' results is not being attributed to Wyeth's quarter in our view, " says Robert Hazlett of SunTrust Robertson Humphrey.
The satellite companies echo Hazlett's point they are part of a diverse spectrum of technologies and products that were competing for listeners' ears and pocket books.
CNN: Proposed satellite radio merger: Boon for consumers or monopoly?
Hazlett cautions that Elan's financial situation is too muddied to easily value the company's parts and he is maintaining a "market perform" rating on the stock.
That could lead to more delays, says Hazlett, but right now he expects both Strattera and Cymbalta to receive final approval in the second quarter of 2003.
"It's early days, but Merck is taking the long view, " says Robert Hazlett, an analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, who has a "buy" rating on Merck stock.
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