Even a small change in the economic assumptions underpinning the surplus projections can make a big difference.
During that time, all these sites are engaged in full-scale battle to develop market share for when the economic recovery comes, the surplus dries up and wine prices start rising again.
It suggests that, even without an economic downturn, the many rosy surplus forecasts that frame today's debate in Washington are little more than entertaining fictions.
Although the former Republican presidential candidate would say he and former President Bill Clinton cut deals that led to a record budget surplus and the biggest economic boom in modern American history, many say the Georgia Republican's ideologically unyielding, take-no-prisoners brand of leadership ushered in an era of heel-digging politics that persists to this day.
Whereas Bush couldn't name a single mistake -- not, say, letting Osama bin Laden escape from Tora Bora, or refusing to allow weapons inspectors to ascertain that Saddam had no weapons of mass destruction, or backing economic policies that took the greatest budget surplus in American history and turned it into the biggest deficit in history -- Obama has stepped up.
Though the vice-president has become more bountiful with his spending plans of late (in response to the rising budget surplus), in general his economic policy is every bit as cautious as his rhetoric is extravagant.
Economic growth of 9% or more is not surplus to requirements, because the country's requirements are so stiff.
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To assess how Mr Brown is measuring up to his golden rule, economists have to adjust each year's deficit or surplus according to their reading of the economic cycle.
In early October the Treasury released a pre-election economic and fiscal update indicating that after 14 years in surplus the budget balance was set to slip into deficit.
But I also voiced to President Obama Brazil's concern regarding the monetary expansion policies that ultimately mean that countries that have a surplus be able to strike a balance in those economic monetary expansion policies through fiscal policies that are ultimately based on expanding investments.
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January of 2001, when that transition happened, CBO and every economic analyst out there said that the United States had a budget surplus, and that surpluses would continue as far as forecasters could foresee.
During China's 30 years of economic growth, hundreds of millions of factory and urban jobs soaked up surplus rural farm labor.
One only has to consider the UK case in the 1983-87 period, when the public finances moved into surplus whilst the economy enjoyed an extended period of above trend economic growth.
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And the markets need to recognize that long-term creative arbitrage projects involving open or closed communities, tackling large economic challenges across the globe, are one of the few ways the surplus capital problem can be solved.
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Back to reality, it must be stressed that applied to our present economic situation, whether government spending is in deficit, balanced, or in surplus is immaterial.
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France has been enjoying a favourable economic climate in the past year, with strong growth leading to a growing budget surplus.
"While we expect continued housing and economic weakness will affect our overall performance this year, we continue to maintain a surplus over all regulatory capital requirements, " Chief Executive RichardSyronRichard Syron said.
"While we expect continued housing and economic weakness will affect our overall performance this year, we continue to maintain a surplus over all regulatory capital requirements, " Chief Executive Richard Syron said.
The finance minister appeared cautiously optimistic over Greece's economic recovery, saying the government's aim was to achieve a primary budget surplus a surplus without taking into account interest payments on outstanding debt by the end of this year.
It has moved slightly into surplus lately but there is no reason to equate euro area current account surpluses with economic success.
Even so, his projections showed the current budget moving from deficit into surplus in 2009-10, allowing the rule to be met over the new economic cycle (see chart).
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Normally seen as a positive development, the surplus actually points to a huge slump in imports, rather than any bounce back in economic activity.
"Their economic policy, largely, was to take the proposals made during the campaign when there was a prospective very large surplus and those policies continued in place, irrespective of what was happening to the surplus ... it was wrong, " Greenspan said.
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