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There are several reasons to think the cyclical model of defense demand might not hold up in the coming downturn.
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HSBC, argues that the difficulties are cyclical and the basic business model is not broken.
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Though as the company migrates its business model to services, which are not as cyclical, Holt expects greater stability of operating results.
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"Significant management changes have been implemented, a universal banking business model offers its own diversification attractions, whilst cyclical economic exposure and the lack of government ownership also appeal, " he said.
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In cyclical sectors like steel, coal, copper, or even aerospace and oil I can model average earning power over a full cycle or even use a discount table on assets in the ground.
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