Third in seniority, O'Connor has, deliberately or not, become the "swing" justice, with her moderately conservative views often the deciding factor in close 5-4 votes.

CNN: A sensible justice

But perhaps the most significant factor is the extremely conservative culture in Libya - and in Misrata in particular - which regards rape as a matter of profound shame for an entire family, and not something to be mentioned in public.

BBC: Libya: 'Forced to rape in Misrata'

Though an avowed liberal, his closest match turned out to be Bill O'Reilly, the flame-throwing conservative host of The O'Reilly Factor on the Fox News Channel.

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The other factor for Obama would be with fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats and other Democrats who stood with Obama on the middle-class tax pledge.

CNN: Read his lips: Does tax pledge put Obama on shaky ground?

And though it remains a fairly socially conservative country - the continued influence of the Catholic Church is a key factor - it is also a socially tolerant country.

BBC: Penny Wong: Australia's non-story of the week

Perhaps the main factor is that, despite having all the credentials of a hardline Chilean conservative (such as membership of Opus Dei, a Catholic movement), he has managed to make the voters forget that he is from the right.

ECONOMIST: Chile

Conservative media outlets also clearly see an opportunity to raise questions about Clinton that could be a factor in her 2016 calculations.

CNN: SHARE THIS

We did not factor this multiplier effect into our analysis above, which is why our revenue estimate might be conservative.

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Not long ago, I spoke with Mallory Factor, a Republican fund-raiser and the co-organizer of a monthly meeting for conservative thinkers and activists in New York.

NEWYORKER: On the Bus