Higher bond and note prices suggest higher trader anxiety in the daily market place.
One very early clue that the stock market bulls are running out of steam is price action in the U.S. Treasury bond and note futures Wednesday.
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One very early clue that the stock market bulls are running out of steam is price action in the U.S. Treasury bond and note futures Wednesday morning.
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U.S. stock indexes slumped, U.S. Treasury bond and note futures prices soared and the U.S. dollar index vacillated but did back down in the wake of the jobs data.
And Treasury note and bond yields are much more controlled by global forces and higher as well than in Japan.
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T-Bond and T-Note prices have dropped dramatically this week.
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The lousy job figures have cleaned the clocks of the equity market and been a boon to the bond market, driving rates down below 3% on the 10 year note and driving up bond prices.
Meanwhile, demand rose for the safe haven 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, pushing yields on the note down to 1.723%.
The spread on the 30 year U.S. Treausry Bond and the 2 year Treasury Note yields were moving closer together, currently at 238 basis points.
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The appeal of a safe haven has been fading away (note also the decline in bond prices).
Separately, Bloomberg reports that the Maestro himself, Alan Greenspan, is so concerned about a sudden sharp increase in interest rates that every day he checks the rate of the 10-year note and 30-year bond calling them the critical Achilles heel of the economy.
Here is a spreadsheet that I have put together that illustrates why a long-term bond is preferable for Ireland to the current promissory note arrangements.
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In government bond trading, the yield on the 10-year note was unchanged at 2.12 percent.
Therefore, the mortgage note was not actually signed over to the bond holder.
In government bond trading, the yield on the 10-year note was unchanged at 1.63 percent, matching its low for the year.
In government bond trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.70 percent from 1.71 percent late Friday as traders shifted money into lower-risk assets.
Government bond yields increased slightly as well, the 10-year benchmark note rising to 3.62% and the 30-year note rising to 4.75%.
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If actual growth proves to be better than forecast, then bond yields should rise and prices for the 10-year Treasury note should fall.
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An alternative to the promissory note arrangement is considered in which a 40-year bond is used as collateral for regular ECB loans which replace an equivalent amount the ELA debt.
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In contrast, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields 1.63% and the 30-year bond yields 2.75%.
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It was exactly the sort of false note that Paddy never missed, and that the creator of Bond should not have missed either.
The U.S. economies need for additional monetary stimulus, be it via quantitative easing or operation twist-like bond buying programs, is diminishing, say Barclays Capital analysts in a note on Monday.
Another risk is if an investor buys a premium priced bond and the borrower prepays by refinancing or selling the home then the Note is paid back at par and the investor loses the premium.
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Bond prices pared earlier gains as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was at 3.87%, the same as late Monday.
The U.S. dollar and Japanese yen gained on other currencies while bond buyers snapped up Treasuries, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note down to 3.21%.
It is important to note that the nominal yield does not estimate return accurately unless the current bond price is the same as its par value.
The biggest star was the 30-year Treasury bond, which registered a 35% return, while the benchmark 10-year note gained 17%, with the yield finishing below 2% for the first time since at least 1977.
Philip Adams, of bond research firm Gimme Credit, took a stab at answering the question in a research note yesterday.
Benefiting from both aspects, government bond prices rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note sliding to 3.72%, from 3.82% late Thursday.
On a cheerier note, though, Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC, questions the conventional wisdom that bond yields must head back up.
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