Fisher believes irrational fears often grab hold early in a big bull market.
This may mean 12 years or more will have elapsed from the crash to the next big bull market.
And the disbelievers often feel vindicated, when after 3, 4, 5, 7, however many years of big bull market returns, a new bear market starts.
The first half shows you what a big bull market can do to prices and the latter half shows just how stable the market has been for half a generation.
We have to realize that the market has already factored in a substantial economic recovery with its big bull market last year off of the March 2009 bottom, and in its big rally from the July low last year.
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It started with the final stages of a big bull market, then we got the second biggest bear market since the Great Depression, a five-year bull market in which stocks over doubled, the biggest bear market since the Great Depression, and the massive start of a new bull.
All my indicators for the past weeks have been in similar conditions seen at the big, bull market top in 2007.
For 25 years, Jim Stack of InvesTech Research has made big bull-market gains, but avoided crashes like those in 1987 and 2000.
The scramble for stock opportunities and the consequent spike in trading volume has, increasingly, become a big enhancing factor in the bull market.
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Even beta seems to have lost some of its forecasting ability: small-company shares have not produced higher returns than big-company ones over the long bull market of the 1980s and 1990s.
And once they get out, usually due to painful losses, they tend to stay away from another relationship with the market for very long periods, like those who have been on the sidelines since the big bear market plunge of 2008 and early last year, not enticed back in for even part of the new bull market that began early last year.
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Brain imaging studies show that investors as a whole get more and more used to big returns, and thus take bigger and bigger risks in a bull market--and then the bubble pops and stockholders start selling like mad.
After all, hedge-fund investor John Paulson, now legendary for shorting the subprime-mortgage market and for betting on gold, remains a big gold bull.
In the big picture, meanwhile, the data also seems to suggest the longer term bull market trend may be topping as well.
Special Offer: Oil has begun a long-term bull market, and it's not too late to invest for big profits and steady income.
Special Offer: Oil has begun a long-term bull market, and it's not too late to invest for big profits and steady income, says veteran adviser Curtis Hesler.
Like Navin, Shilling is also a big bull on the U.S. Dollar which has tended to move inversely with the market.
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It's likely he overestimated the strength of a bull market last year, and then tried to trade his way out of the big losses.
In a late-stage bull market, like we have now, keep it simple and stick with the biggest of the big.
Many of the millions of Americans who have entered the stockmarket for the first time in this bull market had been expected to bail out of shares at the first whiff of trouble, and some big institutional investors sold heavily at the beginning of this week on that presumption.
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